| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | SE Louisiana | 24-0 | 1369.9 | +15.1 | 1385.0 | 87.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | LSU | 7-23 | 1385.0 | +57.1 | 1442.1 | 3.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 49-14 | 1442.1 | +82.6 | 1524.7 | 64.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 30-20 | 1524.7 | -7.4 | 1517.3 | 72.1% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | UTEP | 30-11 | 1517.3 | +42.9 | 1560.2 | 68.1% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 7-35 | 1563.7 | -90.5 | 1473.2 | 80.2% |
| 10 | Oct 21 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 27-28 | 1477.2 | -15.8 | 1461.4 | 57.8% |
| 11 | Oct 31 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 55-14 | 1461.4 | +49.7 | 1511.1 | 79.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Delaware | 24-25 | 1511.1 | -9.0 | 1502.1 | 75.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Washington State | 3-28 | 1502.1 | -34.7 | 1467.4 | 32.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Liberty | 34-28 | 1467.4 | +0.5 | 1467.9 | 53.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Missouri State | 42-30 | 1467.9 | +13.4 | 1481.3 | 56.4% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 23-14 | 1471.5 | +5.6 | 1477.1 | 63.7% |